Houston Rockets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Reed SheppardPoints20
- Jock LandaleAssists5
- Jock LandaleRebounds9
Clippers- James HardenPoints35
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–134
- Q46.0shot clock turnover117–134
- Q420.0Jack McVeigh personal foul117–134
- Q420.1Drew Eubanks offensive rebound117–134
- Q423.0Trentyn Flowers misses 20-foot jumper117–134
- Q447.0Drew Eubanks enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.117–134
- Q447.0Cam Christie enters the game for Ivica Zubac117–134
- Q447.0Trentyn Flowers enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic117–134
- Q447.0Clippers Full timeout117–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:24Jeff Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)HOU 38 – 36 LAC · HOU 21% → 26% +6HOU 21% → 26%+6 pts
- Q211:02Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)HOU 38 – 39 LAC · LAC 74% → 79% +6LAC 74% → 79%+6 pts
- Q210:20Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point shot (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)HOU 38 – 42 LAC · LAC 79% → 84% +5LAC 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q410:57Reed Sheppard makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotHOU 99 – 105 LAC · HOU 8% → 14% +6HOU 8% → 14%+6 pts
- Q410:41Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)HOU 99 – 108 LAC · LAC 86% → 92% +6LAC 86% → 92%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -10.5
- ML HOU +400 / LAC -600
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 61.0%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -429
- HOU +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 105.0 – 115.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1619 | 1607 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −36 | +58 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +77 Elo | LAC 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 64.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 112.620th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.9 | Points allowed | 108.14th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.5 | Margin | +4.56th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 113.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.5 | Defense rating | 108.54th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.122nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 29–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–36 | 45–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 30–26 | 27–19 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 42–37 | 38–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–2 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.