Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds7
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints34
- Amen ThompsonAssists6
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–125
- Q415.1shot clock turnover111–125
- Q440.1Reed Sheppard defensive rebound111–125
- Q441.1Kenrich Williams misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot111–125
- Q452.1Cam Whitmore enters the game for Jalen Green111–125
- Q452.1Jae'Sean Tate personal take foul111–125
- Q453.0Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2111–125
- Q453.0Reed Sheppard enters the game for Alperen Sengun111–124
- Q453.0Aaron Holiday enters the game for Jabari Smith Jr.111–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:06Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)OKC 32 – 43 HOU · HOU 54% → 61% +7HOU 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q29:56Jalen Williams makes 27-foot three pointerOKC 35 – 43 HOU · OKC 39% → 46% +7OKC 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q28:26Amen Thompson makes 25-foot three pointerOKC 37 – 46 HOU · HOU 50% → 57% +8HOU 50% → 57%+8 pts
- Q411:28Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 88 – 98 HOU · OKC 12% → 20% +8OKC 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q410:59Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 91 – 100 HOU · OKC 14% → 22% +9OKC 14% → 22%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -5.5
- ML OKC -240 / HOU +200
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5.5
- OKC 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 70.6%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- OKC -212
- HOU +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.0 – 110.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1774 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +57 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +152 Elo | OKC 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 64.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.9 | Points scored | 114.314th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 109.05th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+13.0 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.8 | Defense rating | 107.62nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–7 | Road vs home | 28–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 52–25 | 41–36 |
| Last 10 | 10–0 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 49–24 | 30–26 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 43–34 | 41–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–3 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 3HOU 128 @ OKC 137Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Dec 14HOU 96 @ OKC 111Picked OKC 67%Hit
- Dec 1OKC 116 @ HOU 119Picked OKC 52%Miss
- Nov 8HOU 107 @ OKC 126Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Mar 27HOU 132 @ OKC 126Picked HOU 57%Hit
- Feb 27HOU 95 @ OKC 112Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Feb 25OKC 123 @ HOU 110Picked OKC 62%Hit
- Dec 6OKC 101 @ HOU 110Picked OKC 61%Miss