Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints22
- Jaden HardyAssists5
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds10
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints20
- Bogdan BogdanovicAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–114
- Q47.1Naji Marshall lost ball turnover (Cam Christie steals)91–114
- Q430.0Naji Marshall defensive rebound91–114
- Q432.0Kobe Brown misses driving layup91–114
- Q447.0Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 291–114
- Q447.0Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 290–114
- Q447.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. shooting foul89–114
- Q456.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)89–114
- Q41:07Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 289–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:05Klay Thompson makes 22-foot pullup jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 2 – 0 LAC · DAL 16% → 19% +3DAL 16% → 19%+3 pts
- Q19:40Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 2 – 3 LAC · LAC 81% → 85% +4LAC 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q18:10Kris Dunn makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DAL 6 – 8 LAC · LAC 82% → 86% +4LAC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q15:33Kawhi Leonard makes 11-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)DAL 10 – 12 LAC · LAC 82% → 85% +3LAC 82% → 85%+3 pts
- Q14:41Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotDAL 10 – 17 LAC · LAC 87% → 91% +3LAC 87% → 91%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -12.5
- ML DAL +500 / LAC -800
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -9.5
- LAC 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- LAC: Elo 82.1%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- LAC -533
- DAL +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 106.5 – 119.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | +86 | DAL: Missing Anthony Davis −63, Dereck Lively II −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +264 Elo | LAC 82.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 85.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 85.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 112.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 108.24th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +3.98th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 108.74th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 99.122nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 26–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−39 Elo- Anthony Davis left adductor strain−63 Elo
- Dereck Lively II right ankle injury−16 Elo
Clippers
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–39 | 43–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 25–18 |
| Underdog | 23–21 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 41–36 | 36–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–5 LAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Dec 21LAC 97 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 59%Hit
- Dec 19LAC 118 @ DAL 95Picked DAL 52%Miss
- May 3LAC 101 @ DAL 114PlayoffsPicked DAL 70%Hit
- May 1DAL 123 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit
- Apr 28LAC 116 @ DAL 111PlayoffsPicked DAL 69%Miss
- Apr 26LAC 90 @ DAL 101PlayoffsPicked DAL 61%Hit
- Apr 23DAL 96 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked LAC 52%Miss
- Apr 21DAL 97 @ LAC 109PlayoffsPicked DAL 61%Miss