San Antonio Spurs at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Harrison BarnesPoints24
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds8
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints25
- James HardenAssists12
- Ivica ZubacRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–122
- Q44.1David Duke Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)117–122
- Q46.1Jordan Miller out of bounds lost ball turnover114–122
- Q49.0Malaki Branham makes driving layup (Jordan McLaughlin assists)114–122
- Q412.1Jordan McLaughlin offensive rebound112–122
- Q415.1Malaki Branham misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot112–122
- Q422.1Jordan Miller lost ball turnover (Harrison Ingram steals)112–122
- Q427.1Malaki Branham makes driving layup (Harrison Ingram assists)112–122
- Q427.1Harrison Ingram offensive rebound110–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:03Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 31 – 30 LAC · SA 17% → 22% +5SA 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q27:16Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 39 – 38 LAC · SA 18% → 23% +6SA 18% → 23%+6 pts
- Q23:00Derrick Jones Jr. makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Ivica Zubac assists)SA 47 – 44 LAC · LAC 65% → 70% +5LAC 65% → 70%+5 pts
- Q22:15Kris Dunn makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)SA 49 – 48 LAC · LAC 67% → 74% +7LAC 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q230.2Chris Paul makes 28-foot running pullup jump shotSA 52 – 52 LAC · SA 18% → 24% +6SA 18% → 24%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -12.5
- ML SA +475 / LAC -750
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -10
- LAC 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 82.9%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- LAC -507
- SA +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 108.5 – 121.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | +14 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +274 Elo | LAC 82.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 82.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 82.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 112.520th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 108.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.7 | Margin | +4.56th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 113.015th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 108.44th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 99.122nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–25 | Road vs home | 28–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–42 | 45–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 27–18 |
| Underdog | 24–30 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 45–33 | 37–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–5 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.