Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints27
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds9
Clippers- James HardenPoints29
- James HardenAssists14
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–135
- Q415.0Kobe Brown defensive rebound104–135
- Q417.1P.J. Washington misses free throw 2 of 2104–135
- Q417.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 1 of 2104–135
- Q417.1Patty Mills personal foul103–135
- Q431.1Cam Christie makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Patty Mills assists)103–135
- Q439.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 2 of 2103–133
- Q439.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 1 of 2102–133
- Q439.1Cam Christie personal foul101–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:07Anthony Davis makes 25-foot three point jumperDAL 7 – 8 LAC · DAL 18% → 22% +5DAL 18% → 22%+5 pts
- Q17:21James Harden makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 8 – 11 LAC · LAC 76% → 81% +5LAC 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q21:29Max Christie makes 29-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 48 – 54 LAC · DAL 12% → 17% +5DAL 12% → 17%+5 pts
- Q21:08Kris Dunn makes 27-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DAL 48 – 57 LAC · LAC 83% → 88% +5LAC 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q37:36Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 65 – 75 LAC · DAL 6% → 10% +4DAL 6% → 10%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -9.5
- ML DAL +315 / LAC -400
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7
- LAC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 75.1%, market 76.9%
- Fair odds
- LAC -332
- DAL +332 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 106.0 – 115.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1595 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | LAC and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | +63 | DAL: Missing Daniel Gafford −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +192 Elo | LAC 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 78.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 76.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 112.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 108.04th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +4.28th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 108.54th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.1 | Pace | 99.122nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 27–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+21 Elo- Daniel Gafford sprained right knee−17 Elo
Clippers
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–40 | 44–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 26–18 |
| Underdog | 23–22 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 41–37 | 36–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–6 LAC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Apr 4DAL 91 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 84%Hit
- Dec 21LAC 97 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 59%Hit
- Dec 19LAC 118 @ DAL 95Picked DAL 52%Miss
- May 3LAC 101 @ DAL 114PlayoffsPicked DAL 70%Hit
- May 1DAL 123 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit
- Apr 28LAC 116 @ DAL 111PlayoffsPicked DAL 69%Miss
- Apr 26LAC 90 @ DAL 101PlayoffsPicked DAL 61%Hit
- Apr 23DAL 96 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked LAC 52%Miss