San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints22
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Stephon CastleRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Toumani CamaraPoints23
- Shaedon SharpeAssists6
- Toumani CamaraRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–120
- Q423.1Chris Paul makes free throw 2 of 2109–120
- Q423.1Spurs offensive team rebound108–120
- Q423.1Chris Paul misses free throw 1 of 2108–120
- Q423.1Rayan Rupert enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe108–120
- Q423.1Justin Minaya personal take foul108–120
- Q424.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2108–120
- Q424.1Justin Minaya enters the game for Toumani Camara108–119
- Q424.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound108–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:31Stephon Castle makes 1-foot dunk (Chris Paul assists)SA 101 – 103 POR · SA 23% → 34% +11SA 23% → 34%+11 pts
- Q43:40Kris Murray makes driving layup (Matisse Thybulle assists)SA 101 – 105 POR · POR 67% → 79% +12POR 67% → 79%+12 pts
- Q43:09Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)SA 103 – 108 POR · POR 68% → 86% +18POR 68% → 86%+18 pts
- Q42:00Chris Paul makes driving layupSA 105 – 108 POR · SA 9% → 21% +12SA 9% → 21%+12 pts
- Q41:44Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)SA 106 – 111 POR · POR 72% → 92% +20POR 72% → 92%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML SA +130 / POR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3.5
- POR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- POR: Elo 64.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- POR -138
- SA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.0 – 114.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −15 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −35, Anfernee Simons −16, Duop Reath −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +104 Elo | POR 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 110.922nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 114.216th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.6 | Margin | −3.323rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 109.823rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 113.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.518th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–24 | Road vs home | 20–1817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−15 Elo- Deni Avdija right thumb injury−35 Elo
- Anfernee Simons right forearm injury−16 Elo
- Duop Reath right knee soreness−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–41 | 44–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 24–29 | 38–29 |
| Overs–unders | 44–33 | 39–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 5–1 POR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.