Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints24
- Amen ThompsonAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints20
- Stephen CurryAssists8
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–96
- Q416.0Trayce Jackson-Davis makes tip shot106–96
- Q416.0Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound106–94
- Q416.1Pat Spencer misses two point shot106–94
- Q421.0Cam Whitmore lost ball turnover (Pat Spencer steals)106–94
- Q434.1Quinten Post makes layup (Pat Spencer assists)106–94
- Q438.1Kevin Knox II defensive rebound106–92
- Q443.0Reed Sheppard misses 25-foot three point jumper106–92
- Q41:01Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 3-foot dunk (Pat Spencer assists)106–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:27Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 67 – 60 GS · HOU 53% → 62% +10HOU 53% → 62%+10 pts
- Q32:19Brandin Podziemski makes 26-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)HOU 75 – 71 GS · GS 33% → 44% +11GS 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q31:26Buddy Hield makes 22-foot three pointer (Brandin Podziemski assists)HOU 77 – 74 GS · GS 35% → 47% +11GS 35% → 47%+11 pts
- Q411:05Gary Payton II makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)HOU 83 – 79 GS · GS 29% → 41% +12GS 29% → 41%+12 pts
- Q46:13Buddy Hield makes 28-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)HOU 91 – 84 GS · GS 10% → 19% +10GS 10% → 19%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -5.5
- ML HOU +180 / GS -220
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -0.5
- GS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.8 pts
- GS: Elo 52.0%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- GS -192
- HOU +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.0 – 115.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1608 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | +46 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +14 Elo | GS 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 113.918th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 110.88th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.4 | Margin | +3.010th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 113.013th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 110.07th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.7 | Pace | 100.518th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–15 | Road vs home | 24–1410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–36 | 41–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–26 | 26–26 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 42–36 | 39–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–6 GS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.