Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Christian BraunPoints25
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints27
- Zach LaVineAssists11
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–116
- Q420.1Zach LaVine makes driving layup124–116
- Q426.1Christian Braun makes free throw 2 of 2124–114
- Q426.1Christian Braun makes free throw 1 of 2123–114
- Q426.1Keon Ellis personal foul122–114
- Q434.1Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 1 of 1122–114
- Q434.1Nikola Jokic shooting foul122–113
- Q434.1Domantas Sabonis makes tip shot122–113
- Q434.1Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound122–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:44Keon Ellis makes 23-foot three point shot (Zach LaVine assists)DEN 105 – 101 SAC · SAC 10% → 22% +12SAC 10% → 22%+12 pts
- Q44:25Aaron Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)DEN 108 – 101 SAC · DEN 78% → 90% +12DEN 78% → 90%+12 pts
- Q44:05Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 108 – 104 SAC · SAC 9% → 21% +12SAC 9% → 21%+12 pts
- Q43:41Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 111 – 104 SAC · DEN 80% → 92% +12DEN 80% → 92%+12 pts
- Q43:16DeMar DeRozan makes 10-foot two point shotDEN 111 – 106 SAC · SAC 7% → 14% +7SAC 7% → 14%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML DEN -190 / SAC +160
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1
- DEN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 53.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -170
- SAC +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.5 – 115.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | −4 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +26 Elo | DEN 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.7 | Points scored | 116.010th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 115.520th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +0.515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 114.68th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 114.222nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.219th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 8th of 3022–17 | Road vs home | 19–1920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–44 | 35–44 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–34 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders | 46–33 | 42–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–3 SAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.