Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints24
- Deni AvdijaAssists11
- Donovan ClinganRebounds14
Kings- Dennis SchroderPoints21
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–93
- Q43.1Deni Avdija defensive rebound98–93
- Q43.1DeMar DeRozan misses 27-foot three point jumper98–93
- Q45.4Dennis Schroder offensive rebound98–93
- Q47.5Keegan Murray misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot98–93
- Q416.5Robert Williams III makes free throw 2 of 298–93
- Q416.5Kris Murray enters the game for Donovan Clingan97–93
- Q416.5Robert Williams III makes free throw 1 of 297–93
- Q416.5Russell Westbrook personal foul96–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:22Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Robert Williams III assists)POR 81 – 76 SAC · POR 64% → 77% +13POR 64% → 77%+13 pts
- Q44:37Dennis Schroder makes 27-foot three point jumperPOR 88 – 87 SAC · SAC 22% → 40% +18SAC 22% → 40%+18 pts
- Q44:13Donovan Clingan makes two point shotPOR 90 – 87 SAC · POR 60% → 73% +13POR 60% → 73%+13 pts
- Q42:29Donovan Clingan makes two point shotPOR 92 – 89 SAC · POR 61% → 77% +16POR 61% → 77%+16 pts
- Q42:13Shaedon Sharpe makes 5-foot driving dunk (Deni Avdija assists)POR 94 – 89 SAC · POR 78% → 90% +11POR 78% → 90%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- POR -4.5
- ML POR -175 / SAC +145
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3
- POR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- POR: Elo 61.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- POR -156
- SAC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 120.0 – 115.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −81 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −46, Jrue Holiday −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +78 Elo | POR 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 111.727th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 122.828th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−3.5 | Margin | −11.129th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 107.329th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 118.127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.0 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 17th of 306–10 | Road vs home | 3–827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301535 | Opponent Elo | 15611st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301435 | Elo rating | 142225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+20 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−46 Elo
- Jrue Holiday right calf−22 Elo
Kings
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–13 | 9–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 13–4 | 8–16 |
| Overs–unders | 18–9 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 4–4 SAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Dec 18SAC 133 @ POR 134Picked POR 74%Hit
- Mar 27POR 107 @ SAC 128Picked SAC 66%Hit
- Feb 6SAC 102 @ POR 108Picked SAC 52%Miss
- Nov 29SAC 106 @ POR 115Picked SAC 70%Miss
- Oct 28POR 98 @ SAC 111Picked SAC 85%Hit
- Apr 14POR 82 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 74%Hit
- Dec 26SAC 113 @ POR 130Picked SAC 63%Miss
- Nov 8POR 118 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 53%Hit