Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints21
- Deni AvdijaAssists7
- Jerami GrantRebounds7
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints22
- Cam SpencerAssists6
- Zach EdeyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–119
- Q419.9shot clock turnover96–119
- Q444.0Duop Reath makes free throw 1 of 196–119
- Q444.0John Konchar shooting foul95–119
- Q444.0Duop Reath makes driving layup (Caleb Love assists)95–119
- Q455.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 2 of 293–119
- Q455.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 1 of 293–118
- Q455.1Sidy Cissoko personal foul93–117
- Q41:01Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound93–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:44Deni Avdija makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 62 – 67 MEM · POR 25% → 33% +8POR 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q37:19Jaylen Wells makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)POR 65 – 72 MEM · MEM 65% → 73% +9MEM 65% → 73%+9 pts
- Q35:37Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three pointer (Jerami Grant assists)POR 70 – 76 MEM · POR 21% → 29% +8POR 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q35:05Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three pointer (Jock Landale assists)POR 70 – 79 MEM · MEM 72% → 80% +8MEM 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q34:50Duop Reath makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 73 – 79 MEM · POR 20% → 28% +8POR 20% → 28%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML POR +105 / MEM -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2
- MEM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MEM: Elo 57.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MEM -114
- POR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 115.5 – 117.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | −30 | POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −16, Robert Williams III −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +55 Elo | MEM 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 113.322nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 116.114th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −2.819th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 110.025th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Pace | 102.512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 15th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301546 | Opponent Elo | 15176th of 30 |
| 18th of 301462 | Elo rating | 150714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−3 Elo- Donovan Clingan lower leg−16 Elo
- Robert Williams III illness−11 Elo
Grizzlies
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–10 | 10–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 12–3 | 4–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–8 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 4–3 MEM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.