Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Cam SpencerPoints21
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists7
- Zach EdeyRebounds15
Spurs- Harrison BarnesPoints31
- Dylan HarperAssists6
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–126
- Q40.0Julian Champagnie defensive rebound119–126
- Q40.0Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper119–126
- Q41.4De'Aaron Fox bad pass (Jaren Jackson Jr. steals)119–126
- Q44.6Kentavious Caldwell-Pope bad pass (De'Aaron Fox steals)119–126
- Q413.4Cedric Coward enters the game for Santi Aldama119–126
- Q413.4Kentavious Caldwell-Pope enters the game for Jaylen Wells119–126
- Q413.4Grizzlies Full timeout119–126
- Q413.4De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2119–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:43Dylan Harper makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)MEM 108 – 108 SA · SA 37% → 55% +18SA 37% → 55%+18 pts
- Q44:08Vince Williams Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach Edey assists)MEM 113 – 110 SA · MEM 46% → 66% +21MEM 46% → 66%+21 pts
- Q43:52Luke Kornet makes 1-foot two point shot (Harrison Barnes assists)MEM 113 – 112 SA · SA 33% → 47% +14SA 33% → 47%+14 pts
- Q43:17Keldon Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)MEM 113 – 115 SA · SA 46% → 69% +23SA 46% → 69%+23 pts
- Q42:17Jaren Jackson Jr. makes two point shot (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 115 – 117 SA · MEM 15% → 29% +14MEM 15% → 29%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML MEM +170 / SA -205
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- SA: Elo 68.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- SA -181
- MEM +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 113.5 – 119.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | +29 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | MEM crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +136 Elo | SA 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 68.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.4 | Points scored | 118.811th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 113.68th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.1 | Margin | +5.37th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 111.613th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.7 | Pace | 101.222nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 8–24th of 30 |
| 5th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 149617th of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–12 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 3–10 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–14 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 6–3 SA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Nov 18MEM 101 @ SA 111Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 1SA 130 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 65%Miss
- Feb 3SA 109 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 59%Hit
- Jan 17MEM 140 @ SA 112Picked SA 53%Miss
- Jan 15MEM 129 @ SA 115Picked MEM 56%Hit
- Apr 9SA 102 @ MEM 87Picked MEM 56%Miss
- Mar 22MEM 99 @ SA 97Picked SA 58%Miss
- Jan 2SA 98 @ MEM 106Picked MEM 63%Hit