Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points27
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists17
- Zach EdeyRebounds15
Pelicans- Jose AlvaradoPoints24
- Derik QueenAssists9
- Saddiq BeyRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game133–128
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime133–128
- OT1.0Pelicans offensive team rebound133–128
- OT2.3Jordan Hawkins misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot133–128
- OT5.3Zach Edey enters the game for Santi Aldama133–128
- OT5.3Zach Edey enters the game for133–128
- OT5.3Zach Edey enters the game for133–128
- OT5.3Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2133–128
- OT5.3Zach Edey enters the game for132–128
- OT5.3Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2132–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:02Saddiq Bey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)MEM 117 – 118 NO · NO 29% → 58% +29NO 29% → 58%+29 pts
- Q448.6Zion Williamson makes 1-foot layup (Jose Alvarado assists)MEM 119 – 120 NO · NO 33% → 65% +31NO 33% → 65%+31 pts
- Q438.5Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layupMEM 121 – 120 NO · MEM 34% → 68% +35MEM 34% → 68%+35 pts
- Q40.9Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Saddiq Bey assists)MEM 122 – 122 NO · NO <1% → 50% +50NO <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:39Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)MEM 128 – 128 NO · NO 19% → 48% +30NO 19% → 48%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -3.5
- ML MEM -155 / NO +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -0.5
- MEM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 52.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MEM -143
- NO +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 120.0 – 116.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1345 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −52 | +29 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +18 Elo | MEM 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 110.627th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 121.926th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.7 | Margin | −11.327th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 108.826th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 120.028th of 30 |
| 10th of 30103.0 | Pace | 101.024th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–6 | Road vs home | 2–828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301538 | Opponent Elo | 15314th of 30 |
| 18th of 301480 | Elo rating | 134528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–12 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–10 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 6–12 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 7–2 NO in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Oct 22NO 122 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Mar 9MEM 107 @ NO 104Picked MEM 79%Hit
- Jan 24NO 126 @ MEM 139Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Dec 27MEM 132 @ NO 124Picked MEM 71%Hit
- Nov 29NO 109 @ MEM 120Picked MEM 84%Hit
- Feb 12NO 96 @ MEM 87Picked NO 59%Hit
- Dec 26MEM 116 @ NO 115Picked NO 72%Miss
- Dec 19MEM 115 @ NO 113Picked NO 83%Miss