New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints25
- Derik QueenAssists11
- Herbert JonesRebounds9
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints29
- Brandon WilliamsAssists12
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–118
- Q43.3P.J. Washington defensive rebound115–118
- Q44.2Derik Queen misses 23-foot three point jumper115–118
- Q46.0Jeremiah Fears offensive rebound115–118
- Q49.3Trey Murphy III misses 26-foot three point jumper115–118
- Q410.9Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Zion Williamson115–118
- Q410.9Caleb Martin enters the game for Dereck Lively II115–118
- Q410.9Pelicans Full timeout115–118
- Q410.9Max Christie makes free throw 2 of 2115–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:40Max Christie makes two point shot (Cooper Flagg assists)NO 108 – 108 DAL · DAL 35% → 52% +17DAL 35% → 52%+17 pts
- Q42:25Herbert Jones makes 2-foot two point shotNO 110 – 108 DAL · NO 48% → 66% +18NO 48% → 66%+18 pts
- Q42:12Cooper Flagg makes 7-foot two point shotNO 110 – 110 DAL · DAL 33% → 52% +19DAL 33% → 52%+19 pts
- Q41:53Zion Williamson makes 1-foot driving floating jump shotNO 112 – 111 DAL · NO 38% → 59% +21NO 38% → 59%+21 pts
- Q431.7Naji Marshall makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)NO 115 – 116 DAL · DAL 17% → 70% +53DAL 17% → 70%+53 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML NO +130 / DAL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2
- DAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 58.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -138
- NO +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 115.0 – 118.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1337 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −28 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +60 Elo | DAL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30108.9 | Points scored | 110.327th of 30 |
| 24th of 30122.1 | Points allowed | 116.917th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−13.1 | Margin | −6.625th of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 103.530th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.7 | Defense rating | 109.74th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.4 | Pace | 104.54th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–823rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–6 | Road vs home | 3–827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301545 | Opponent Elo | 149318th of 30 |
| 28th of 301337 | Elo rating | 140625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 4–5 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Nov 5NO 101 @ DAL 99Picked DAL 72%Miss
- Feb 21NO 103 @ DAL 111Picked DAL 68%Hit
- Jan 29DAL 137 @ NO 136Picked NO 50%Miss
- Jan 15DAL 116 @ NO 119Picked NO 51%Hit
- Nov 19NO 91 @ DAL 132Picked DAL 86%Hit
- Jan 15NO 120 @ DAL 125Picked NO 62%Miss
- Jan 13NO 118 @ DAL 108Picked DAL 59%Miss
- Nov 14DAL 110 @ NO 131Picked DAL 65%Miss