Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints36
- Deni AvdijaAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints21
- D'Angelo RussellAssists7
- Naji MarshallRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game133–138
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime133–138
- OT4.3Max Christie makes free throw 2 of 2133–138
- OT4.3Mavericks offensive team rebound133–137
- OT4.3Max Christie misses free throw 1 of 2133–137
- OT4.3Shaedon Sharpe personal take foul133–137
- OT5.7Toumani Camara makes dunk133–137
- OT5.7Toumani Camara offensive rebound131–137
- OT7.1Jerami Grant misses 26-foot three point jumper131–137
- OT9.4Donovan Clingan enters the game for Caleb Love131–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:30P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)POR 106 – 108 DAL · DAL 41% → 61% +20DAL 41% → 61%+20 pts
- Q41:11Cooper Flagg makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotPOR 117 – 117 DAL · DAL 24% → 49% +24DAL 24% → 49%+24 pts
- OT3:44Shaedon Sharpe makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 123 – 123 DAL · POR 31% → 52% +22POR 31% → 52%+22 pts
- OT1:46Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 129 – 128 DAL · POR 31% → 62% +31POR 31% → 62%+31 pts
- OT1:27P.J. Washington makes 1-foot dunk (Cooper Flagg assists)POR 129 – 132 DAL · DAL 60% → 81% +20DAL 60% → 81%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -2.5
- ML POR -150 / DAL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3
- POR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- POR: Elo 61.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- POR -138
- DAL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 119.5 – 117.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | −15 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −48, Jrue Holiday −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +84 Elo | POR 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30120.6 | Points scored | 109.228th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 115.814th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −6.524th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 103.129th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 109.34th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.3 | Pace | 104.26th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–822nd of 30 |
| 13th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 2–726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301543 | Opponent Elo | 147824th of 30 |
| 20th of 301476 | Elo rating | 140325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+32 Elo- Damian Lillard injury/illness−48 Elo
- Jrue Holiday right calf−22 Elo
Mavericks
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–6 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–3 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–7 DAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Jan 9POR 111 @ DAL 117Picked DAL 72%Hit
- Dec 28DAL 122 @ POR 126Picked DAL 58%Miss
- Dec 23POR 108 @ DAL 132Picked DAL 86%Hit
- Dec 1DAL 137 @ POR 131Picked DAL 64%Hit
- Jan 5POR 103 @ DAL 139Picked DAL 64%Hit
- Jan 3POR 97 @ DAL 126Picked DAL 66%Hit
- Dec 16DAL 131 @ POR 120Picked DAL 64%Hit
- Dec 8DAL 125 @ POR 112Picked DAL 69%Hit