Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints22
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Deni AvdijaRebounds10
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Alperen SengunAssists9
- Steven AdamsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–140
- Q48.6Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)116–140
- Q417.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound113–140
- Q420.1Sidy Cissoko misses 12-foot two point shot113–140
- Q439.6Aaron Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2113–140
- Q439.6Aaron Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2113–139
- Q439.6Sidy Cissoko personal foul113–138
- Q446.5Rockets defensive team rebound113–138
- Q447.6Caleb Love misses 28-foot three point jumper113–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:09Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)POR 16 – 10 HOU · HOU 53% → 59% +6HOU 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q26:58Jrue Holiday makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 45 – 44 HOU · POR 27% → 34% +7POR 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q26:05Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)POR 47 – 49 HOU · HOU 66% → 73% +7HOU 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q25:44Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 50 – 49 HOU · POR 27% → 34% +7POR 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q25:22Alperen Sengun makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)POR 50 – 52 HOU · HOU 66% → 73% +7HOU 66% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML POR +250 / HOU -300
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 65.7%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -263
- POR +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 114.5 – 122.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +65 | +57 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −37 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +113 Elo | HOU 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30121.0 | Points scored | 124.03rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 113.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +11.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 122.02nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.5 | Pace | 99.427th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–110th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 148920th of 30 |
| 19th of 301488 | Elo rating | 15737th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+65 Elo- Damian Lillard not with team−37 Elo
Rockets
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–5 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–3 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 2–5 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.