Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints25
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists9
- Alex SarrRebounds11
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints23
- Amen ThompsonAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–135
- Q418.7shot clock turnover112–135
- Q431.6Jae'Sean Tate offensive rebound112–135
- Q433.9JD Davison misses 9-foot two point shot112–135
- Q455.9Jeff Green defensive rebound112–135
- Q457.1Tre Johnson misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot112–135
- Q41:08Jeff Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)112–135
- Q41:22Malaki Branham makes free throw 2 of 2112–132
- Q41:22Malaki Branham makes free throw 1 of 2111–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:57Khris Middleton makes driving layup (Alex Sarr assists)WSH 10 – 12 HOU · WSH 6% → 8% +2WSH 6% → 8%+2 pts
- Q16:26Khris Middleton makes 27-foot three pointerWSH 16 – 15 HOU · WSH 8% → 11% +3WSH 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q16:11Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)WSH 16 – 18 HOU · HOU 89% → 92% +3HOU 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q16:03Tre Johnson makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 19 – 18 HOU · WSH 8% → 11% +3WSH 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q15:38Amen Thompson makes alley oop layup (Alperen Sengun assists)WSH 19 – 20 HOU · HOU 89% → 91% +2HOU 89% → 91%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -17.5
- ML WSH +1000 / HOU -2000
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -12.5
- HOU 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 88.4%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -1048
- WSH +1048 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.5 – 128.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1290 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +55 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +353 Elo | HOU 88.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 89.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 89.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 91.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.6 | Points scored | 122.84th of 30 |
| 30th of 30129.2 | Points allowed | 113.16th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−15.5 | Margin | +9.73rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 120.32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.3 | Defense rating | 110.98th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.4 | Pace | 99.528th of 30 |
| 24th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 30 |
| 7th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 151013th of 30 |
| 30th of 301290 | Elo rating | 15708th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–9 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 2–8 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–4 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.