Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints28
- Amen ThompsonAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds16
Grizzlies- Cam SpencerPoints19
- Ja MorantAssists8
- Cedric CowardRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–109
- Q41.2Grizzlies offensive team rebound124–109
- Q41.2GG Jackson misses 22-foot three point shot124–109
- Q46.7Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound124–109
- Q410.4JD Davison misses 23-foot three point jumper124–109
- Q432.7Javon Small makes 14-foot two point shot (PJ Hall assists)124–109
- Q435.2PJ Hall offensive rebound124–107
- Q437.1PJ Hall misses 7-foot hook shot124–107
- Q445.6Jae'Sean Tate makes 1-foot two point shot (Aaron Holiday assists)124–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:41Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Jock Landale assists)HOU 60 – 54 MEM · MEM 14% → 20% +6MEM 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q311:11Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 6-foot two point shotHOU 60 – 56 MEM · MEM 20% → 24% +4MEM 20% → 24%+4 pts
- Q310:58Josh Okogie makes 2-foot dunk (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 62 – 56 MEM · HOU 76% → 80% +4HOU 76% → 80%+4 pts
- Q410:49Reed Sheppard makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 97 – 85 MEM · HOU 90% → 94% +5HOU 90% → 94%+5 pts
- Q410:38Cam Spencer makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)HOU 97 – 88 MEM · MEM 6% → 10% +5MEM 6% → 10%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML HOU -290 / MEM +240
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.7%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -253
- MEM +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 119.5 – 113.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | −42 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +128 Elo | HOU 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.8 | Points scored | 115.522nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 120.425th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+12.7 | Margin | −4.925th of 30 |
| 1st of 30122.0 | Offense rating | 110.924th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 115.623rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.7 | Pace | 104.25th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
| 12th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 150316th of 30 |
| 8th of 301569 | Elo rating | 149316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 0–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–2 MEM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Jan 30HOU 119 @ MEM 120Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Jan 13MEM 118 @ HOU 120Picked HOU 56%Hit
- Jan 9HOU 119 @ MEM 115Picked MEM 57%Miss
- Oct 25MEM 108 @ HOU 128Picked HOU 60%Hit
- Feb 14HOU 113 @ MEM 121Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Dec 15HOU 103 @ MEM 96Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Dec 13MEM 104 @ HOU 117Picked HOU 69%Hit
- Nov 22MEM 91 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 58%Hit