Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Isaiah StewartRebounds14
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points21
- Ja MorantAssists10
- Charles BasseyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–106
- Q418.3Javonte Green defensive rebound114–106
- Q421.3Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper114–106
- Q428.0Isaiah Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2114–106
- Q428.0Isaiah Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2113–106
- Q428.0Cedric Coward personal take foul112–106
- Q428.9Isaiah Stewart offensive rebound112–106
- Q430.3Ausar Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2112–106
- Q430.3Pistons offensive team rebound112–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:22Duncan Robinson makes 22-foot three pointer (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 40 – 36 MEM · DET 62% → 70% +7DET 62% → 70%+7 pts
- Q37:44Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 65 – 56 MEM · DET 75% → 82% +7DET 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q43:48Cedric Coward makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)DET 103 – 97 MEM · MEM 4% → 12% +8MEM 4% → 12%+8 pts
- Q43:09Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 3-foot driving floating jump shotDET 103 – 99 MEM · MEM 10% → 19% +9MEM 10% → 19%+9 pts
- Q42:02Jock Landale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)DET 107 – 103 MEM · MEM 3% → 14% +11MEM 3% → 14%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML DET -185 / MEM +155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3.5
- DET 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- DET: Elo 64.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -166
- MEM +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 120.0 – 115.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +30 | −48 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +101 Elo | DET 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 116.915th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 121.327th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −4.424th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 111.422nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 115.624th of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.3 | Pace | 105.15th of 30 |
| 10th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 30 |
| 6th of 301537 | Opponent Elo | 149421st of 30 |
| 14th of 301518 | Elo rating | 149917th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–5 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.