Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints41
- Jaylen BrownAssists4
- Payton PritchardRebounds10
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints25
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–119
- Q43.8(00:03.8) [Celtics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)113–119
- Q46.7Duncan Robinson defensive rebound113–119
- Q46.7Payton Pritchard misses 22-foot step back jumpshot113–119
- Q414.9Josh Minott defensive rebound113–119
- Q417.5Duncan Robinson misses 23-foot three point jumper113–119
- Q439.6Jaylen Brown bad pass (Duncan Robinson steals)113–119
- Q451.2Tobias Harris makes two point shot113–119
- Q451.2Tobias Harris offensive rebound113–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:37Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 68 – 66 DET · BOS 43% → 53% +9BOS 43% → 53%+9 pts
- Q44:08Jalen Duren makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Tobias Harris assists)BOS 103 – 109 DET · DET 77% → 87% +9DET 77% → 87%+9 pts
- Q43:21Payton Pritchard makes two point shotBOS 106 – 109 DET · BOS 15% → 27% +11BOS 15% → 27%+11 pts
- Q42:51Ausar Thompson makes dunkBOS 106 – 111 DET · DET 75% → 86% +11DET 75% → 86%+11 pts
- Q41:39Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 111 – 115 DET · BOS 2% → 13% +10BOS 2% → 13%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML BOS +115 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- DET: Elo 58.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.5 – 115.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −104 | +16 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +59 Elo | DET 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 115.511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 113.614th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.1 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 111.110th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.7 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3033–8 | Road vs home | 22–1916th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301593 | Elo rating | 150715th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−104 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–49 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 43–45 | 19–23 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 27–19 |
| Overs–unders | 43–50 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–1 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.