Boston Celtics at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints20
- Jaylen BrownAssists6
- Jaylen BrownRebounds6
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints23
- Josh HartAssists11
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game81–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter81–119
- Q416.1Cameron Payne defensive rebound81–119
- Q417.0Xavier Tillman misses tip shot81–119
- Q417.0Xavier Tillman offensive rebound81–119
- Q420.1JD Davison misses two point shot81–119
- Q425.1Precious Achiuwa lost ball turnover (Neemias Queta steals)81–119
- Q438.1Tyler Kolek defensive rebound81–119
- Q441.0Baylor Scheierman misses 15-foot two point shot81–119
- Q454.1Tyler Kolek makes 26-foot three point shot (Cameron Payne assists)81–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:27Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 3 – 4 NY · BOS 35% → 41% +6BOS 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q14:06Jaylen Brown makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 13 – 14 NY · BOS 34% → 41% +6BOS 34% → 41%+6 pts
- Q12:31Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 16 – 16 NY · BOS 37% → 43% +7BOS 37% → 43%+7 pts
- Q11:32Karl-Anthony Towns makes 28-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)BOS 16 – 21 NY · NY 61% → 68% +7NY 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q151.0Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)BOS 16 – 24 NY · NY 68% → 74% +6NY 68% → 74%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -2.5
- ML BOS +125 / NY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1.5
- NY 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.4 pts
- NY: Elo 43.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -135
- BOS +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 104.0 – 106.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1707 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | +4 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +49 Elo | BOS 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 115.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 111.79th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.1 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 116.45th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.7 | Pace | 98.426th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3033–8 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–48 | 47–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 43–45 | 36–33 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 43–49 | 48–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–4 NY in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
- May 14NY 102 @ BOS 127PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- May 12BOS 113 @ NY 121PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Miss
- May 10BOS 115 @ NY 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 7NY 91 @ BOS 90PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Miss
- May 5NY 108 @ BOS 105PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Miss
- Apr 8BOS 119 @ NY 117Picked BOS 55%Hit
- Feb 23NY 105 @ BOS 118Picked BOS 73%Hit
- Feb 8BOS 131 @ NY 104Picked BOS 57%Hit