Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

FinalNY leads series 2-1

Away

Celtics

61-21

115–93

at

Home

Knicks

51-31

BOS 69%NY 31%

You didn't pick this one.

Madison Square Garden · ABC

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.

NY favored BOS favored111 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4NY50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Celtics
Knicks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game115–93
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–93
  • Q46.0shot clock turnover115–93
  • Q430.0Ariel Hukporti makes dunk (Cameron Payne assists)115–93
  • Q436.1Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound115–91
  • Q438.2Payton Pritchard misses 13-foot pullup jump shot115–91
  • Q450.1Payton Pritchard offensive rebound115–91
  • Q454.0Baylor Scheierman misses 9-foot pullup jump shot115–91
  • Q41:08Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound115–91
  • Q41:11Landry Shamet misses 24-foot three point jumper115–91

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q110:33Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 5 – 2 NY · BOS 69% → 74% +5
  2. Q19:10Karl-Anthony Towns makes 28-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)BOS 7 – 6 NY · NY 24% → 30% +5
  3. Q18:59Jaylen Brown makes 24-foot three pointer (Derrick White assists)BOS 10 – 6 NY · BOS 70% → 76% +5
  4. Q17:23Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 13 – 6 NY · BOS 76% → 80% +5
  5. Q15:25Derrick White makes 27-foot three pointerBOS 20 – 10 NY · BOS 80% → 85% +4

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Celtics 69%

SolidHit
BOS 69%NY 31%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
BOS -5.5
ML BOS -260 / NY +210
Pre-line forecast
BOS 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -2
BOS 59%
Ratings vs. market
−10.5 pts
BOS: Elo 58.6%, market 69.1%
Fair odds
BOS -224
NY +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 107.5 – 102.0 NY
Posted spread, posted total 209.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSNYWhy
Team rating16911590Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+20+25BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsBOS +60 EloBOS 58.6%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 64.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 64.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBOS 69.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Boston Celtics and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatNY
8th of 30116.3Points scored115.89th of 30
2nd of 30107.2Points allowed111.79th of 30
3rd of 30+9.1Margin+4.18th of 30
2nd of 30118.1Offense rating116.45th of 30
5th of 30108.9Defense rating112.313th of 30
28th of 3097.7Pace98.426th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 106–410th of 30
1st of 3033–8Road vs home27–148th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Celtics

+20 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Knicks

+25 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CelticsKnicks
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSNY
Against the spread42–4746–44
Last 104–67–3
Favorite41–4436–33
Underdog1–310–11
Overs–unders41–4846–44
Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 8–3 NY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.