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Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast

FinalBOS leads series 2-1

Away

Celtics

61-21

93–95

at

Home

Magic

41-41

BOS 67%ORL 33%

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Kia Center · ESPN, NBC Sports BO, FanDuel SN FL

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.

ORL favored BOS favored104 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4ORL50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Celtics
Magic

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game93–95
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–95
  • Q40.1Derrick White enters the game for Payton Pritchard93–95
  • Q40.1Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Cory Joseph93–95
  • Q40.1Celtics Full timeout93–95
  • Q40.1Jayson Tatum defensive rebound93–95
  • Q43.0Franz Wagner misses 26-foot three point jumper93–95
  • Q417.1Kristaps Porzingis enters the game for Derrick White93–95
  • Q417.1Cory Joseph enters the game for Gary Harris93–95
  • Q417.1Magic Full timeout93–95

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q411:29Franz Wagner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)BOS 70 – 76 ORL · ORL 54% → 67% +12
  2. Q42:31Derrick White makes 1-foot two point shotBOS 91 – 91 ORL · BOS 36% → 54% +18
  3. Q42:13Franz Wagner makes driving layupBOS 91 – 93 ORL · ORL 46% → 65% +19
  4. Q41:26Franz Wagner makes driving layupBOS 91 – 95 ORL · ORL 70% → 87% +17
  5. Q428.0Derrick White makes 1-foot dunk (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 93 – 95 ORL · BOS 2% → 16% +14

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Celtics 67%

SolidMiss
BOS 67%ORL 33%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
BOS -4.5
ML BOS -230 / ORL +185
Pre-line forecast
BOS 75%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -6.5
BOS 74%
Ratings vs. market
+7.7 pts
BOS: Elo 74.3%, market 66.5%
Fair odds
BOS -199
ORL +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 102.5 – 98.0 ORL
Posted spread, posted total 200.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSORLWhy
Team rating17031510Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+32+4BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsBOS +184 EloBOS 74.3%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 74.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 74.6%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBOS 66.5%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatORL
8th of 30116.3Points scored105.428th of 30
2nd of 30107.2Points allowed105.51st of 30
3rd of 30+9.1Margin−0.117th of 30
2nd of 30118.1Offense rating107.727th of 30
5th of 30108.9Defense rating107.82nd of 30
28th of 3097.7Pace97.729th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 107–37th of 30
1st of 3033–8Road vs home22–1916th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Celtics

+32 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Magic

+4 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CelticsMagic
1400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSORL
Against the spread40–4443–41
Last 105–56–4
Favorite39–4127–20
Underdog1–316–21
Overs–unders38–4636–48
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 5–3 ORL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.