Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Jusuf NurkicPoints14
- Damion BaughAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints34
- Payton PritchardAssists7
- Luke KornetRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–93
- Q46.1Payton Pritchard defensive rebound86–93
- Q412.0Moussa Diabate misses 27-foot three point jumper86–93
- Q419.1Hornets Full timeout86–93
- Q419.1Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 286–93
- Q419.1Jordan Walsh enters the game for Luke Kornet86–92
- Q419.1Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 286–92
- Q419.1Tidjane Salaun personal take foul86–91
- Q424.1Luke Kornet enters the game for Jordan Walsh86–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:05Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three pointer (Neemias Queta assists)CHA 74 – 79 BOS · BOS 73% → 84% +11BOS 73% → 84%+11 pts
- Q47:46Wendell Moore Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damion Baugh assists)CHA 77 – 79 BOS · CHA 16% → 27% +11CHA 16% → 27%+11 pts
- Q42:13Moussa Diabate makes driving layupCHA 86 – 86 BOS · CHA 25% → 42% +17CHA 25% → 42%+17 pts
- Q41:59JD Davison makes driving layupCHA 86 – 88 BOS · BOS 57% → 76% +18BOS 57% → 76%+18 pts
- Q41:19Jordan Walsh makes 23-foot three point jumper (JD Davison assists)CHA 86 – 91 BOS · BOS 78% → 96% +18BOS 78% → 96%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML CHA +400 / BOS -600
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -14.5
- BOS 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 90.9%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -429
- CHA +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 99.0 – 109.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1248 | 1692 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | −152 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Jayson Tatum −79, Jrue Holiday −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +399 Elo | BOS 90.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 87.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 87.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.3 | Points scored | 116.68th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +9.13rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 118.32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 109.05th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.7 | Pace | 97.728th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 307–33 | Road vs home | 27–137th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−152 Elo- Jayson Tatum rest−79 Elo
- Jrue Holiday right shoulder−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–46 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 38–39 |
| Underdog | 35–37 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 33–48 | 37–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–5 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.