Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Nick Smith Jr.Points28
- Nick Smith Jr.Assists10
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Raptors- Jared RhodenPoints23
- Jonathan MogboAssists11
- Orlando RobinsonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–126
- Q411.0shot clock turnover96–126
- Q433.1Orlando Robinson defensive rebound96–126
- Q437.0Jaylen Sims misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot96–126
- Q445.0A.J. Lawson makes 5-foot two point shot96–126
- Q452.2Nick Smith Jr. makes two point shot96–124
- Q457.0Nick Smith Jr. defensive rebound94–124
- Q459.2Garrett Temple misses 26-foot three point jumper94–124
- Q41:15Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 294–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:00Nick Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)CHA 12 – 8 TOR · CHA 23% → 28% +5CHA 23% → 28%+5 pts
- Q15:13Jamison Battle makes 23-foot three point shot (Jonathan Mogbo assists)CHA 12 – 11 TOR · TOR 71% → 77% +5TOR 71% → 77%+5 pts
- Q13:31A.J. Lawson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jared Rhoden assists)CHA 18 – 16 TOR · TOR 69% → 74% +6TOR 69% → 74%+6 pts
- Q11:03Wendell Moore Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nick Smith Jr. assists)CHA 23 – 21 TOR · CHA 21% → 26% +5CHA 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q23:14Scottie Barnes makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 37 – 43 TOR · TOR 80% → 85% +5TOR 80% → 85%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -11.5
- ML CHA +380 / TOR -550
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -13.5
- TOR 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 89.6%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -406
- CHA +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 105.0 – 116.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1253 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −102 | +42 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +375 Elo | TOR 89.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 84.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 85.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.6 | Points scored | 110.723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 115.218th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.5 | Margin | −4.524th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.6 | Offense rating | 108.326th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–31 | Road vs home | 17–2323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−102 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–44 | 48–31 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 35–35 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 31–48 | 39–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–4 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.