Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints14
- Miles BridgesAssists3
- Tidjane SalaunRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–100
- Q40.0
Grizzlies offensive team rebound124–100 - Q40.0GG Jackson misses 34-foot three point pullup jump shot124–100
- Q418.2GG Jackson defensive rebound124–100
- Q421.1Tidjane Salaun misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot124–100
- Q437.1Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound124–100
- Q440.2Marvin Bagley III misses 26-foot three point jumper124–100
- Q451.0Jaylen Sims makes free throw 2 of 2124–100
- Q451.0Seth Curry enters the game for Moussa Diabate124–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42Ja Morant makes driving layupMEM 2 – 0 CHA · MEM 88% → 90% +2MEM 88% → 90%+2 pts
- Q110:01Desmond Bane makes driving layupMEM 4 – 0 CHA · MEM 90% → 91% +2MEM 90% → 91%+2 pts
- Q18:56Desmond Bane makes 30-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 7 – 0 CHA · MEM 91% → 94% +2MEM 91% → 94%+2 pts
- Q18:00Mark Williams makes 3-foot two point shot (KJ Simpson assists)MEM 8 – 4 CHA · CHA 7% → 9% +2CHA 7% → 9%+2 pts
- Q17:43Ja Morant makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 11 – 4 CHA · MEM 91% → 93% +2MEM 91% → 93%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -14.5
- ML MEM -1200 / CHA +700
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -9
- MEM 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- MEM: Elo 80.6%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -738
- CHA +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 122.5 – 108.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1259 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −10 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +247 Elo | MEM 80.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 81.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 81.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.7 | Points scored | 105.728th of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 114.015th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | −8.327th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 105.729th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 114.021st of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Pace | 99.620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 12–2827th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–39 | 35–43 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 29–22 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 10–17 | 35–34 |
| Overs–unders | 45–33 | 31–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–2 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.