Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Seth CurryPoints17
- Jusuf NurkicAssists6
- Mark WilliamsRebounds12
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints22
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Al HorfordRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–130
- Q43.1Drew Peterson defensive rebound94–130
- Q45.1Tidjane Salaun misses 27-foot three point jumper94–130
- Q426.1Neemias Queta makes free throw 1 of 194–130
- Q426.1Taj Gibson shooting foul94–129
- Q426.1Neemias Queta makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (JD Davison assists)94–129
- Q437.1Drew Peterson defensive rebound94–127
- Q439.1KJ Simpson misses 16-foot pullup jump shot94–127
- Q452.0KJ Simpson defensive rebound94–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:44Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)CHA 37 – 33 BOS · BOS 78% → 83% +5BOS 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q27:20Josh Okogie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Damion Baugh assists)CHA 40 – 33 BOS · CHA 17% → 23% +5CHA 17% → 23%+5 pts
- Q24:50Payton Pritchard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)CHA 43 – 40 BOS · BOS 77% → 83% +6BOS 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q24:12Al Horford makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)CHA 45 – 43 BOS · BOS 79% → 84% +5BOS 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q23:17Josh Okogie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nick Smith Jr. assists)CHA 50 – 46 BOS · CHA 15% → 20% +5CHA 15% → 20%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -21.5
- ML CHA +1300 / BOS -4000
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 94%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -18.5
- BOS 95%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 95.3%, market 93.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -1366
- CHA +1366 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 97.0 – 118.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1249 | 1690 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | −6 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +521 Elo | BOS 95.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 93.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 93.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 93.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.5 | Points scored | 116.48th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 107.63rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.8 | Margin | +8.83rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 118.22nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 109.35th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.6 | Pace | 97.728th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 307–32 | Road vs home | 26–138th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–45 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 37–39 |
| Underdog | 35–36 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 32–48 | 36–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–4 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.