Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Anthony BlackPoints20
- Tristan da SilvaAssists6
- Anthony BlackRebounds10
Hawks- Terance MannPoints19
- Keaton WallaceAssists15
- Keaton WallaceRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–117
- Q410.1shot clock turnover105–117
- Q431.2Anthony Black defensive rebound105–117
- Q432.1Daeqwon Plowden misses tip shot105–117
- Q432.1Daeqwon Plowden offensive rebound105–117
- Q437.1Keaton Wallace misses 17-foot pullup jump shot105–117
- Q459.1Jett Howard makes driving layup (Anthony Black assists)105–117
- Q41:08Anthony Black defensive rebound103–117
- Q41:12Goga Bitadze blocks Jacob Toppin 's 2-foot driving floating jump shot103–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:25Jacob Toppin makes 25-foot three point shot (Keaton Wallace assists)ORL 41 – 48 ATL · ATL 53% → 60% +8ATL 53% → 60%+8 pts
- Q311:16Anthony Black makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotORL 52 – 58 ATL · ORL 31% → 39% +8ORL 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q310:54Keaton Wallace makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jacob Toppin assists)ORL 52 – 61 ATL · ATL 61% → 69% +8ATL 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q33:01Anthony Black makes 25-foot three pointer (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 77 – 83 ATL · ORL 24% → 34% +10ORL 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q31:00Garrison Mathews makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keaton Wallace assists)ORL 80 – 90 ATL · ATL 71% → 81% +9ATL 71% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -3.5
- ML ORL -170 / ATL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 55.2%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -151
- ATL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 110.0 – 106.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −80 | −81 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −29, Clint Capela −19 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +37 Elo | ORL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.4 | Points scored | 118.25th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Points allowed | 119.527th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.319th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 112.518th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.7 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 104.52nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 20–1919th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−81 Elo- Jalen Johnson left shoulder surgery−29 Elo
- Clint Capela left hand−19 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–39 | 40–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–19 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 15–20 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders | 34–47 | 49–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–4 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.