Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints36
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Mouhamed GueyeRebounds18
76ers- Jared ButlerPoints25
- Jared ButlerAssists7
- Marcus BagleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–110
- Q411.0shot clock turnover124–110
- Q432.0Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound124–110
- Q434.1Jared Butler misses two point shot124–110
- Q444.1Onyeka Okongwu makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Trae Young assists)124–110
- Q457.1Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound122–110
- Q41:00Onyeka Okongwu blocks Ricky Council IV 's 3-foot driving dunk122–110
- Q41:13(01:13) [Hawks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)122–110
- Q41:13Onyeka Okongwu offensive goaltending turnover122–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:22Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 56 – 60 PHI · ATL 58% → 66% +8ATL 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q21:08Marcus Bagley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Hood-Schifino assists)ATL 56 – 63 PHI · PHI 34% → 42% +8PHI 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q233.2Marcus Bagley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ricky Council IV assists)ATL 58 – 66 PHI · PHI 37% → 45% +8PHI 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q38:51Mouhamed Gueye makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 68 – 68 PHI · ATL 66% → 74% +8ATL 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q333.1Georges Niang makes 23-foot three point shot (Caris LeVert assists)ATL 88 – 85 PHI · ATL 69% → 79% +10ATL 69% → 79%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -11.5
- ML ATL -750 / PHI +475
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.6%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -507
- PHI +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 125.5 – 114.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1327 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +25 | −51 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Alex Reese −8, Quentin Grimes −4, Guerschon Yabusele −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +127 Elo | ATL 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 75.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 74.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 109.726th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.6 | Points allowed | 115.721st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −6.025th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 110.122nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 116.126th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.6 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 12–2726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−51 Elo- Alex Reese right achilles tendinitis−8 Elo
- Quentin Grimes right shoulder sprain−4 Elo
- Guerschon Yabusele right knee soreness−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–41 | 28–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 27–22 | 21–33 |
| Overs–unders | 49–31 | 48–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.