Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Zaccharie RisacherPoints38
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds15
Nets- Jalen WilsonPoints20
- Drew TimmeAssists6
- Drew TimmeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–109
- Q47.1Drew Timme makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyson Etienne assists)133–109
- Q419.0Daeqwon Plowden makes driving layup (Dominick Barlow assists)133–106
- Q436.0Maxwell Lewis makes 25-foot three point shot (Tosan Evbuomwan assists)131–106
- Q441.1Tosan Evbuomwan defensive rebound131–103
- Q445.1Daeqwon Plowden misses 23-foot three point jumper131–103
- Q456.1Dariq Whitehead out of bounds bad pass turnover131–103
- Q41:03Dominick Barlow personal foul131–103
- Q41:10Maxwell Lewis defensive rebound131–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:26Dyson Daniels makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Trae Young assists)ATL 2 – 0 BKN · ATL 84% → 86% +2ATL 84% → 86%+2 pts
- Q110:48Zaccharie Risacher makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 5 – 1 BKN · ATL 85% → 89% +3ATL 85% → 89%+3 pts
- Q110:24Onyeka Okongwu makes dunkATL 7 – 1 BKN · ATL 88% → 90% +2ATL 88% → 90%+2 pts
- Q18:10Ziaire Williams makes 24-foot three point shot (Keon Johnson assists)ATL 10 – 4 BKN · BKN 7% → 10% +3BKN 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q13:29Zaccharie Risacher makes 23-foot three point shot (Vit Krejci assists)ATL 25 – 11 BKN · ATL 94% → 96% +2ATL 94% → 96%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -13.5
- ML ATL -800 / BKN +500
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.1%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -533
- BKN +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 124.0 – 110.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1343 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −42 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +124 Elo | ATL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 76.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 105.229th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 111.910th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −6.626th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 107.028th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.5 | Pace | 97.827th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 12–2726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–41 | 43–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 27–22 | 38–29 |
| Overs–unders | 48–31 | 36–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–4 BKN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.