Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints32
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints36
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Jaylen BrownRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–109
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound100–109
- Q40.0Caleb Houstan misses 48-foot three point pullup jump shot100–109
- Q43.0Jrue Holiday out of bounds bad pass turnover100–109
- Q49.0Paolo Banchero makes driving layup (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)100–109
- Q420.0Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 298–109
- Q420.0Sam Hauser enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis98–108
- Q420.0Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 298–108
- Q420.0Caleb Houstan personal take foul98–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:17Jaylen Brown makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 49 – 53 BOS · BOS 75% → 81% +7BOS 75% → 81%+7 pts
- Q310:42Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three pointerORL 49 – 56 BOS · BOS 81% → 87% +5BOS 81% → 87%+5 pts
- Q36:29Franz Wagner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 58 – 63 BOS · ORL 12% → 17% +6ORL 12% → 17%+6 pts
- Q48:44Al Horford makes 5-foot two point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)ORL 79 – 86 BOS · BOS 83% → 89% +5BOS 83% → 89%+5 pts
- Q46:33Derrick White makes 29-foot three pointerORL 83 – 93 BOS · BOS 90% → 96% +5BOS 90% → 96%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML ORL +380 / BOS -550
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 74.8%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -406
- ORL +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 92.5 – 103.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 195.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1699 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −31 | ORL: Usual rotation · BOS: Missing Jayson Tatum −42 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +189 Elo | BOS 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 72.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.4 | Points scored | 116.38th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Points allowed | 107.22nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +9.13rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 108.95th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 97.728th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−31 Elo- Jayson Tatum bruised right wrist−42 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–41 | 40–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–20 | 39–40 |
| Underdog | 15–21 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 35–48 | 37–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–4 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.