Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints36
- Franz WagnerAssists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds13
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints30
- Jrue HolidayAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–103
- Q410.1shot clock turnover86–103
- Q433.1Tristan da Silva bad pass (Torrey Craig steals)86–103
- Q441.1Tristan da Silva defensive rebound86–103
- Q444.1JD Davison misses 25-foot three point jumper86–103
- Q41:01JD Davison defensive rebound86–103
- Q41:06Caleb Houstan misses 25-foot three point jumper86–103
- Q41:14Caleb Houstan enters the game for Gary Harris86–103
- Q41:14Anthony Black enters the game for Franz Wagner86–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:15Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 42 – 44 BOS · ORL 13% → 17% +5ORL 13% → 17%+5 pts
- Q21:57Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)ORL 45 – 44 BOS · ORL 18% → 24% +6ORL 18% → 24%+6 pts
- Q250.0Franz Wagner makes 16-foot step back jumpshotORL 49 – 46 BOS · ORL 25% → 29% +5ORL 25% → 29%+5 pts
- Q39:54Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotORL 49 – 53 BOS · BOS 78% → 85% +6BOS 78% → 85%+6 pts
- Q38:51Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)ORL 51 – 58 BOS · BOS 84% → 89% +5BOS 84% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -12.5
- ML ORL +550 / BOS -900
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 76.9%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -585
- ORL +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 96.0 – 108.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 204.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1693 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +4 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +209 Elo | BOS 76.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.4 | Points scored | 116.38th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Points allowed | 107.22nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +9.13rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 108.95th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 97.728th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–40 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–20 | 38–40 |
| Underdog | 15–20 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 35–47 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.