Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints37
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds14
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints31
- Franz WagnerAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–98
- Q43.1Jaylen Brown defensive rebound107–98
- Q46.0Paolo Banchero misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot107–98
- Q411.1Magic Full timeout107–98
- Q411.1Al Horford makes free throw 2 of 2107–98
- Q411.1Al Horford makes free throw 1 of 2106–98
- Q411.1Wendell Carter Jr. personal take foul105–98
- Q420.1Franz Wagner makes driving layup105–98
- Q427.0Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2105–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:13Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 82 – 77 ORL · BOS 70% → 80% +10BOS 70% → 80%+10 pts
- Q47:29Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 89 – 84 ORL · BOS 69% → 82% +12BOS 69% → 82%+12 pts
- Q45:13Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)BOS 91 – 89 ORL · ORL 16% → 30% +14ORL 16% → 30%+14 pts
- Q44:18Wendell Carter Jr. makes tip shotBOS 91 – 91 ORL · ORL 30% → 43% +13ORL 30% → 43%+13 pts
- Q43:58Kristaps Porzingis makes dunkBOS 93 – 91 ORL · BOS 57% → 71% +13BOS 57% → 71%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -7.5
- ML BOS -320 / ORL +260
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6
- BOS 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 72.3%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -274
- ORL +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 103.0 – 95.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 198.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1695 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +4 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +167 Elo | BOS 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 70.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 105.428th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 105.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 107.727th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 107.82nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.7 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 1st of 3033–8 | Road vs home | 22–1916th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–45 | 44–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–42 | 27–20 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 17–21 |
| Overs–unders | 38–47 | 36–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–4 ORL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Apr 25BOS 93 @ ORL 95PlayoffsPicked BOS 67%Miss
- Apr 23ORL 100 @ BOS 109PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Hit
- Apr 20ORL 86 @ BOS 103PlayoffsPicked BOS 85%Hit
- Apr 9BOS 76 @ ORL 96Picked ORL 73%Hit
- Jan 17ORL 94 @ BOS 121Picked BOS 89%Hit
- Dec 23BOS 104 @ ORL 108Picked BOS 76%Miss
- Dec 17ORL 97 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 63%Hit
- Dec 15ORL 111 @ BOS 128Picked BOS 51%Hit