New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists11
- Josh HartRebounds10
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints25
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–93
- Q40.0Miles McBride defensive rebound94–93
- Q40.1Tim Hardaway Jr. misses 22-foot three point jumper94–93
- Q40.1Tim Hardaway Jr. offensive rebound94–93
- Q47.1Cade Cunningham misses 14-foot pullup jump shot94–93
- Q411.0Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Jalen Brunson94–93
- Q411.0Miles McBride enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns94–93
- Q411.0Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Ausar Thompson94–93
- Q411.0Malik Beasley enters the game for Dennis Schroder94–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:02Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)NY 79 – 84 DET · DET 65% → 80% +16DET 65% → 80%+16 pts
- Q44:07Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointerNY 84 – 84 DET · NY 28% → 48% +20NY 28% → 48%+20 pts
- Q42:43Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 87 – 88 DET · NY 18% → 40% +22NY 18% → 40%+22 pts
- Q42:20Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)NY 87 – 91 DET · DET 61% → 84% +23DET 61% → 84%+23 pts
- Q447.0Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 94 – 93 DET · NY 20% → 65% +45NY 20% → 65%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML NY +120 / DET -140
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- DET 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- DET: Elo 47.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -128
- NY +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 107.0 – 109.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | +41 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +18 Elo | NY 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 115.511th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 113.614th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 111.110th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.4 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 22–1916th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–43 | 45–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–32 | 19–21 |
| Underdog | 6–11 | 26–19 |
| Overs–unders | 44–41 | 44–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 6–4 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Apr 24NY 118 @ DET 116PlayoffsPicked NY 54%Hit
- Apr 21DET 100 @ NY 94PlayoffsPicked NY 70%Miss
- Apr 19DET 112 @ NY 123PlayoffsPicked NY 70%Hit
- Apr 10NY 106 @ DET 115Picked DET 59%Hit
- Jan 13DET 124 @ NY 119Picked NY 73%Miss
- Dec 7DET 120 @ NY 111Picked NY 73%Miss
- Nov 1NY 128 @ DET 98Picked NY 70%Hit
- Mar 25DET 99 @ NY 124Picked NY 84%Hit