Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists3
- Tobias HarrisRebounds13
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints37
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Josh HartRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–94
- Q40.0Knicks offensive team rebound100–94
- Q40.1Jalen Brunson misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot100–94
- Q43.1Knicks Full timeout100–94
- Q43.1Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2100–94
- Q43.1Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 299–94
- Q43.1Jalen Brunson personal take foul98–94
- Q43.1Jalen Duren defensive rebound98–94
- Q46.0Jalen Brunson misses 24-foot three point jumper98–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:55Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)DET 80 – 71 NY · DET 67% → 79% +11DET 67% → 79%+11 pts
- Q42:23Jalen Brunson makes 13-foot step back jumpshotDET 92 – 90 NY · NY 21% → 36% +16NY 21% → 36%+16 pts
- Q42:01Jalen Duren makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 94 – 90 NY · DET 66% → 82% +16DET 66% → 82%+16 pts
- Q41:15Josh Hart makes dunk (Jalen Brunson assists)DET 94 – 94 NY · NY 29% → 53% +25NY 29% → 53%+25 pts
- Q455.1Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three pointerDET 97 – 94 NY · DET 47% → 85% +38DET 47% → 85%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML DET +220 / NY -270
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- NY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- NY: Elo 62.8%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -234
- DET +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 107.5 – 114.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +19 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +91 Elo | NY 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 115.89th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 111.79th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 116.45th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 98.426th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–39 | 41–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 35–31 |
| Underdog | 25–18 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders | 43–40 | 43–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–5 NY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Apr 19DET 112 @ NY 123PlayoffsPicked NY 70%Hit
- Apr 10NY 106 @ DET 115Picked DET 59%Hit
- Jan 13DET 124 @ NY 119Picked NY 73%Miss
- Dec 7DET 120 @ NY 111Picked NY 73%Miss
- Nov 1NY 128 @ DET 98Picked NY 70%Hit
- Mar 25DET 99 @ NY 124Picked NY 84%Hit
- Feb 26DET 111 @ NY 113Picked NY 74%Hit
- Nov 30DET 112 @ NY 118Picked NY 80%Hit