Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints23
- Marcus SasserAssists10
- Tolu SmithRebounds8
Bucks- Pat ConnaughtonPoints43
- Jamaree BouyeaAssists7
- Pat ConnaughtonRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game133–140
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime133–140
- OT7.1Pat Connaughton defensive rebound133–140
- OT11.2Lindy Waters III misses 26-foot three point jumper133–140
- OT17.1Pistons offensive team rebound133–140
- OT20.1Lindy Waters III misses 25-foot three point jumper133–140
- OT27.0Jamaree Bouyea makes free throw 2 of 2133–140
- OT27.0Jamaree Bouyea makes free throw 1 of 2133–139
- OT27.0Tolu Smith personal take foul133–138
- OT32.1Ron Harper Jr. makes driving layup (Daniss Jenkins assists)133–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:40Pete Nance makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)DET 109 – 112 MIL · MIL 42% → 64% +22MIL 42% → 64%+22 pts
- Q42:15Pete Nance makes 16-foot two point shotDET 114 – 116 MIL · MIL 44% → 63% +19MIL 44% → 63%+19 pts
- Q41:55Pat Connaughton makes two point shotDET 114 – 118 MIL · MIL 65% → 81% +17MIL 65% → 81%+17 pts
- Q41.2Lindy Waters III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bobi Klintman assists)DET 123 – 123 MIL · DET <1% → 51% +51DET <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT4:14Pat Connaughton makes 26-foot three pointerDET 123 – 128 MIL · MIL 55% → 75% +19MIL 55% → 75%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML DET -400 / MIL +315
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.5 pts
- DET: Elo 61.4%, market 76.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -332
- MIL +332 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 116.0 – 106.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | −174 | DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −46 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Missing Bobby Portis −41, Ryan Rollins −23 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +80 Elo | DET 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 76.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 115.012th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 112.413th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +2.611th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 111.311th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.617th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 26–149th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+4 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee−46 Elo
Bucks
−174 Elo- Bobby Portis rest−41 Elo
- Ryan Rollins left shoulder−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–37 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–20 | 28–27 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–7 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.