Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints32
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists15
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints36
- Cade CunninghamAssists12
- Jalen DurenRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–119
- Q41.0Jalen Duren defensive rebound125–119
- Q41.1Taurean Prince misses free throw 2 of 2125–119
- Q41.1Double technical foul: Malik Beasley and Giannis Antetokounmpo125–119
- Q41.1Taurean Prince makes free throw 1 of 2125–119
- Q41.1Tim Hardaway Jr. personal take foul124–119
- Q43.0Taurean Prince defensive rebound124–119
- Q45.1Cade Cunningham misses 28-foot three point jumper124–119
- Q48.1Pistons offensive team rebound124–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:30Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)MIL 101 – 100 DET · DET 37% → 50% +13DET 37% → 50%+13 pts
- Q410:03Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)MIL 101 – 103 DET · DET 50% → 63% +13DET 50% → 63%+13 pts
- Q49:09Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 104 – 103 DET · MIL 36% → 50% +14MIL 36% → 50%+14 pts
- Q48:29Gary Trent Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 107 – 103 DET · MIL 51% → 65% +14MIL 51% → 65%+14 pts
- Q47:53Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotMIL 107 – 106 DET · DET 34% → 49% +15DET 34% → 49%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML MIL +140 / DET -165
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- DET: Elo 55.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -149
- MIL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 112.5 – 117.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DET and MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +17 | +48 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +36 Elo | DET 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 115.211th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 113.114th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +2.113th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 110.79th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 13th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 22–1815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–38 | 44–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–27 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40 | 40–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–0 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.