Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints25
- Cade CunninghamAssists12
- Tobias HarrisRebounds6
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints34
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–123
- Q418.0Ausar Thompson lost ball turnover (OG Anunoby steals)112–123
- Q423.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2112–123
- Q423.1Knicks offensive team rebound112–122
- Q423.1Jalen Brunson misses free throw 1 of 2112–122
- Q423.1Malik Beasley personal take foul112–122
- Q433.1Jalen Brunson defensive rebound112–122
- Q435.0Ausar Thompson misses 3-foot two point shot112–122
- Q443.1Josh Hart makes 1-foot layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)112–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:35Malik Beasley makes 22-foot three point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)DET 85 – 78 NY · DET 54% → 66% +11DET 54% → 66%+11 pts
- Q342.0Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three pointerDET 90 – 81 NY · DET 63% → 74% +11DET 63% → 74%+11 pts
- Q411:11Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)DET 91 – 88 NY · NY 35% → 47% +13NY 35% → 47%+13 pts
- Q47:47Cameron Payne makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)DET 98 – 98 NY · NY 43% → 58% +15NY 43% → 58%+15 pts
- Q46:41Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Brunson assists)DET 98 – 103 NY · NY 68% → 81% +13NY 68% → 81%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML DET +220 / NY -270
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2.5
- NY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- NY: Elo 59.4%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -234
- DET +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 107.0 – 113.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | +4 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +66 Elo | NY 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 115.89th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 111.79th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 116.45th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 98.426th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–38 | 40–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 34–31 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–4 NY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.