New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Landry ShametPoints29
- Miles McBrideAssists8
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds9
Nets- Trendon WatfordPoints20
- Tosan EvbuomwanAssists5
- Keon JohnsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–105
- Q416.1Kevin McCullar Jr. defensive rebound113–105
- Q420.1Cameron Payne blocks Keon Johnson 's 24-foot three point pullup jump shot113–105
- Q424.0Landry Shamet makes layup (Precious Achiuwa assists)113–105
- Q428.1Tyson Etienne enters the game for Drew Timme111–105
- Q428.1Knicks Full timeout111–105
- Q435.1Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound111–105
- Q438.0Jalen Wilson misses 24-foot three point jumper111–105
- Q450.0Delon Wright makes two point shot111–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:00Cameron Payne makes 30-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 80 – 79 BKN · NY 50% → 61% +11NY 50% → 61%+11 pts
- Q410:46P.J. Tucker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 92 – 86 BKN · NY 69% → 79% +11NY 69% → 79%+11 pts
- Q410:29Jalen Wilson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keon Johnson assists)NY 92 – 89 BKN · BKN 20% → 31% +11BKN 20% → 31%+11 pts
- Q410:19Landry Shamet makes 24-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)NY 95 – 89 BKN · NY 69% → 80% +11NY 69% → 80%+11 pts
- Q44:05Trendon Watford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)NY 105 – 103 BKN · BKN 16% → 32% +16BKN 16% → 32%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML NY -190 / BKN +160
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NY: Elo 65.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -170
- BKN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 107.5 – 102.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1329 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −135 | −38 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +114 Elo | NY 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 105.130th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 112.210th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −7.126th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 106.828th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 114.020th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.4 | Pace | 97.927th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 12–2826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−135 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–42 | 43–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 33–31 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 6–11 | 38–31 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40 | 37–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 7–0 BKN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.