Brooklyn Nets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Keon JohnsonPoints20
- Keon JohnsonAssists6
- Drew TimmeRebounds10
Timberwolves- Rudy GobertPoints35
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–117
- Q415.0Luka Garza defensive rebound91–117
- Q418.0Drew Timme misses 9-foot two point shot91–117
- Q431.1Josh Minott makes free throw 2 of 291–117
- Q431.1Josh Minott makes free throw 1 of 291–116
- Q431.1Maxwell Lewis shooting foul91–115
- Q443.0Terrence Shannon Jr. defensive rebound91–115
- Q444.0Tosan Evbuomwan misses free throw 2 of 291–115
- Q444.0Tosan Evbuomwan makes free throw 1 of 291–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:03Jalen Wilson makes 24-foot three point shot (Reece Beekman assists)BKN 5 – 0 MIN · BKN 9% → 12% +3BKN 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q19:29Trendon Watford makes 2-foot two point shotBKN 7 – 0 MIN · BKN 12% → 14% +2BKN 12% → 14%+2 pts
- Q19:05Mike Conley makes 4-foot two point shotBKN 7 – 2 MIN · MIN 86% → 88% +2MIN 86% → 88%+2 pts
- Q18:43Trendon Watford makes 2-foot two point shotBKN 9 – 2 MIN · BKN 12% → 14% +2BKN 12% → 14%+2 pts
- Q18:12Anthony Edwards makes two point shot (Mike Conley assists)BKN 9 – 4 MIN · MIN 85% → 88% +2MIN 85% → 88%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -21.5
- ML BKN +1300 / MIN -4000
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -15
- MIN 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 91.7%, market 93.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -1366
- BKN +1366 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 99.5 – 121.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1332 | 1641 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIN and BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −34 | +37 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +416 Elo | MIN 91.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 93.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 93.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 93.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.3 | Points scored | 114.215th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.9 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 114.49th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 109.76th of 30 |
| 27th of 3097.9 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–26 | Road vs home | 23–1613th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–37 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 25–35 |
| Underdog | 38–30 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 37–43 | 45–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–3 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.