Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints44
- Mike ConleyAssists9
- Julius RandleRebounds10
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints36
- Desmond BaneAssists9
- Zach EdeyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game141–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter141–125
- Q417.1Leonard Miller makes two point shot (Mike Conley assists)141–125
- Q434.2Mike Conley defensive rebound139–125
- Q437.1Jay Huff misses 25-foot three point jumper139–125
- Q445.1Mike Conley makes free throw 2 of 2139–125
- Q445.1Jaylen Clark enters the game for Naz Reid138–125
- Q445.1Josh Minott enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo138–125
- Q445.1Rob Dillingham enters the game for Julius Randle138–125
- Q445.1Leonard Miller enters the game for Jaden McDaniels138–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:30Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MIN 61 – 63 MEM · MEM 44% → 52% +8MEM 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q21:49Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 64 – 65 MEM · MIN 42% → 50% +8MIN 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q233.1Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MIN 65 – 70 MEM · MEM 53% → 61% +9MEM 53% → 61%+9 pts
- Q311:23Ja Morant makes 24-foot three pointer (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MIN 69 – 75 MEM · MEM 56% → 65% +9MEM 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q311:02Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 72 – 75 MEM · MIN 35% → 44% +9MIN 35% → 44%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -130 / MEM +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- MEM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 116.5 – 114.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1630 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +39 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +70 Elo | MIN 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 121.72nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 116.823rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +4.95th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 115.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 110.59th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 105.61st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 25–1410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–42 | 40–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–35 | 30–22 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–35 | 45–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–2 MEM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.