New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Josh HartRebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints24
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–116
- Q40.1Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Mitchell Robinson118–116
- Q40.1Dennis Schroder enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.118–116
- Q40.1Ausar Thompson enters the game for Malik Beasley118–116
- Q40.1Ronald Holland II enters the game for Jalen Duren118–116
- Q40.1Knicks Full timeout118–116
- Q40.1Jalen Duren out of bounds bad pass turnover118–116
- Q40.1(00:00.5) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)118–116
- Q40.1Pistons defensive team rebound118–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:25Dennis Schroder makes 23-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)NY 104 – 99 DET · DET 10% → 21% +11DET 10% → 21%+11 pts
- Q44:42Tobias Harris makes 16-foot jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)NY 104 – 101 DET · DET 19% → 30% +10DET 19% → 30%+10 pts
- Q44:10Jalen Brunson makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Josh Hart assists)NY 106 – 101 DET · NY 71% → 82% +11NY 71% → 82%+11 pts
- Q42:07Cade Cunningham makes driving layupNY 108 – 105 DET · DET 10% → 22% +12DET 10% → 22%+12 pts
- Q41:24Jalen Brunson makes two point shotNY 110 – 105 DET · NY 82% → 94% +11NY 82% → 94%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -130 / DET +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- NY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- NY: Elo 49.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.5 – 107.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +43 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +2 Elo | DET 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 115.511th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 113.614th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 111.110th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.4 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 22–1916th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–43 | 45–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 35–32 | 19–21 |
| Underdog | 6–11 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 43–41 | 43–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 5–4 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Apr 21DET 100 @ NY 94PlayoffsPicked NY 70%Miss
- Apr 19DET 112 @ NY 123PlayoffsPicked NY 70%Hit
- Apr 10NY 106 @ DET 115Picked DET 59%Hit
- Jan 13DET 124 @ NY 119Picked NY 73%Miss
- Dec 7DET 120 @ NY 111Picked NY 73%Miss
- Nov 1NY 128 @ DET 98Picked NY 70%Hit
- Mar 25DET 99 @ NY 124Picked NY 84%Hit
- Feb 26DET 111 @ NY 113Picked NY 74%Hit