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Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast

FinalBOS wins series 4-1

Away

Magic

41-41

89–120

at

Home

Celtics

61-21

ORL 16%BOS 84%

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TD Garden · NBA TV, NBC Sports BO, FanDuel SN FL

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored ORL favored112 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4BOS50%ORL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Magic
Celtics

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game89–120
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–120
  • Q41.1Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound89–120
  • Q45.0Tristan da Silva misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot89–120
  • Q411.1Tristan da Silva defensive rebound89–120
  • Q412.1JD Davison misses tip shot89–120
  • Q412.1JD Davison offensive rebound89–120
  • Q415.1JD Davison misses driving floating jump shot89–120
  • Q426.1Jett Howard loose ball foul89–120
  • Q426.1Celtics defensive team rebound89–120

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q14:10Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 19 – 10 BOS · ORL 29% → 35% +6
  2. Q12:43Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jonathan Isaac assists)ORL 24 – 15 BOS · ORL 30% → 36% +6
  3. Q11.1Gary Harris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 27 – 23 BOS · ORL 22% → 27% +6
  4. Q310:37Paolo Banchero makes two point shotORL 53 – 48 BOS · ORL 33% → 39% +6
  5. Q310:22Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumperORL 53 – 51 BOS · BOS 61% → 70% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Celtics 84%

StrongHit
ORL 16%BOS 84%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.

Market
BOS -11.5
ML ORL +475 / BOS -750
Pre-line forecast
BOS 80%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -9
BOS 81%
Ratings vs. market
−2.4 pts
BOS: Elo 81.1%, market 83.5%
Fair odds
BOS -507
ORL +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ORL 94.0 – 105.5 BOS
Posted spread, posted total 199.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorORLBOSWhy
Team rating15141699Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+2+33ORL: Usual rotation · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsBOS +253 EloBOS 81.1%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 79.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 80.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBOS 83.5%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics compared, with each team's league rank
ORLStatBOS
28th of 30105.4Points scored116.38th of 30
1st of 30105.5Points allowed107.22nd of 30
17th of 30−0.1Margin+9.13rd of 30
27th of 30107.7Offense rating118.12nd of 30
2nd of 30107.8Defense rating108.95th of 30
29th of 3097.7Pace97.728th of 30
7th of 307–3Last 108–22nd of 30
16th of 3019–22Road vs home28–137th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Magic

+2 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Celtics

+33 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MagicCeltics
1400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonORLBOS
Against the spread44–4241–45
Last 106–45–5
Favorite27–2040–42
Underdog17–221–3
Overs–unders37–4939–47
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ORL 4–6 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.