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New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast

FinalNY leads series 2-0

Away

Knicks

51-31

91–90

at

Home

Celtics

61-21

NY 20%BOS 80%

You didn't pick this one.

TD Garden · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored NY favored91 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4BOS50%NY

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Knicks
Celtics

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game91–90
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–90
  • Q42.1Jayson Tatum bad pass (Mikal Bridges steals)91–90
  • Q412.1Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns91–90
  • Q412.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 291–90
  • Q412.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 290–90
  • Q412.1Jrue Holiday shooting foul89–90
  • Q418.1Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Mitchell Robinson89–90
  • Q418.1Jalen Brunson enters the game for Miles McBride89–90
  • Q418.1Knicks Full timeout89–90

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q41:59Jalen Brunson makes 18-foot two point shotNY 87 – 86 BOS · NY 33% → 53% +20
  2. Q456.1Jalen Brunson makes two point shotNY 89 – 86 BOS · NY 60% → 84% +24
  3. Q418.1Jayson Tatum makes driving dunkNY 89 – 90 BOS · BOS 28% → 77% +49
  4. Q412.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2NY 90 – 90 BOS · NY 20% → 48% +28
  5. Q412.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2NY 91 – 90 BOS · NY 48% → 77% +29

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Celtics 80%

StrongMiss
NY 20%BOS 80%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.

Market
BOS -10.5
ML NY +380 / BOS -550
Pre-line forecast
BOS 71%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -5
BOS 70%
Ratings vs. market
−10.4 pts
BOS: Elo 69.9%, market 80.2%
Fair odds
BOS -406
NY +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 100.0 – 110.5 BOS
Posted spread, posted total 210.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYBOSWhy
Team rating15841697Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+28+24NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsBOS +146 EloBOS 69.9%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 71.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 71.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBOS 80.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Boston Celtics compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatBOS
9th of 30115.8Points scored116.38th of 30
9th of 30111.7Points allowed107.22nd of 30
8th of 30+4.1Margin+9.13rd of 30
5th of 30116.4Offense rating118.12nd of 30
13th of 30112.3Defense rating108.95th of 30
26th of 3098.4Pace97.728th of 30
10th of 306–4Last 108–22nd of 30
4th of 3024–17Road vs home28–137th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

+28 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Celtics

+24 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KnicksCeltics
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYBOS
Against the spread45–4442–46
Last 106–44–6
Favorite36–3341–43
Underdog9–111–3
Overs–unders46–4341–47
Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NY 2–8 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.