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New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast

Final/OTNY leads series 1-0

Away

Knicks

51-31

108–105

at

Home

Celtics

61-21

NY 24%BOS 76%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored NY favored110 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4OTBOS50%NY

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Knicks
Celtics

Last plays

  • OT0.0End of Game108–105
  • OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime108–105
  • OT1.0Jaylen Brown lost ball turnover (Mikal Bridges steals)108–105
  • OT3.0Celtics Full timeout108–105
  • OT3.0Celtics Full timeout108–105
  • OT3.0Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns108–105
  • OT3.0Miles McBride enters the game for Jalen Brunson108–105
  • OT3.0Karl-Anthony Towns personal take foul108–105
  • OT17.0Derrick White defensive rebound108–105
  • OT19.0Josh Hart misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot108–105

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q44:07Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 94 – 91 BOS · NY 42% → 63% +21
  2. Q42:18Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)NY 97 – 98 BOS · BOS 37% → 65% +28
  3. Q41:08OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 100 – 98 BOS · NY 33% → 72% +39
  4. Q453.1Jrue Holiday makes 3-foot layup (Jaylen Brown assists)NY 100 – 100 BOS · BOS 25% → 54% +29
  5. OT2:30Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 106 – 100 BOS · NY 70% → 89% +19

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Celtics 76%

StrongMiss
NY 24%BOS 76%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
BOS -8.5
ML NY +290 / BOS -380
Pre-line forecast
BOS 70%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -5.5
BOS 71%
Ratings vs. market
−4.3 pts
BOS: Elo 71.2%, market 75.5%
Fair odds
BOS -309
NY +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 102.0 – 110.5 BOS
Posted spread, posted total 212.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYBOSWhy
Team rating15741706Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+32+21NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsBOS +157 EloBOS 71.2%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 69.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 69.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBOS 75.5%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Boston Celtics compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatBOS
9th of 30115.8Points scored116.38th of 30
9th of 30111.7Points allowed107.22nd of 30
8th of 30+4.1Margin+9.13rd of 30
5th of 30116.4Offense rating118.12nd of 30
13th of 30112.3Defense rating108.95th of 30
26th of 3098.4Pace97.728th of 30
10th of 306–4Last 108–22nd of 30
4th of 3024–17Road vs home28–137th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

+32 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Celtics

+21 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KnicksCeltics
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYBOS
Against the spread44–4442–45
Last 106–45–5
Favorite36–3341–42
Underdog8–111–3
Overs–unders45–4340–47
Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NY 1–8 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.