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New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast

FinalNY wins series 4-2

Away

Knicks

51-31

116–113

at

Home

Pistons

44-38

NY 49%DET 51%

You didn't pick this one.

Little Caesars Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, FanDuel SN DET, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.

DET favored NY favored131 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4DET50%NY

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Knicks
Pistons

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game116–113
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–113
  • Q40.1Malik Beasley out of bounds lost ball turnover116–113
  • Q44.1Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Ausar Thompson116–113
  • Q44.1Malik Beasley enters the game for Jalen Duren116–113
  • Q44.1Pistons Full timeout116–113
  • Q45.1Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointer116–113
  • Q420.1Miles McBride enters the game for Mitchell Robinson113–113
  • Q420.1Knicks Full timeout113–113
  • Q420.1Josh Hart defensive rebound113–113

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q46:26Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)NY 103 – 101 DET · DET 24% → 39% +15
  2. Q41:38Jalen Brunson makes two point shotNY 110 – 112 DET · NY 13% → 28% +16
  3. Q449.1Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2NY 111 – 113 DET · DET 66% → 79% +13
  4. Q435.1Mikal Bridges makes tip shotNY 113 – 113 DET · NY 17% → 50% +33
  5. Q45.1Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerNY 116 – 113 DET · NY 50% → >99% +50

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Pistons 51%

Toss-upMiss
NY 49%DET 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
DET -1.5
ML NY -105 / DET -115
Pre-line forecast
DET 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -0.5
DET 48%
Ratings vs. market
−3.2 pts
DET: Elo 47.9%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
DET -104
NY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 106.0 – 107.5 DET
Posted spread, posted total 213.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYDETWhy
Team rating15691512Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+33+39NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsNY +14 EloNY 52.1%
Market-implied ratingsNY 52.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 52.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDET 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatDET
9th of 30115.8Points scored115.511th of 30
9th of 30111.7Points allowed113.614th of 30
8th of 30+4.1Margin+1.913th of 30
5th of 30116.4Offense rating112.915th of 30
13th of 30112.3Defense rating111.110th of 30
26th of 3098.4Pace101.510th of 30
10th of 306–4Last 104–619th of 30
4th of 3024–17Road vs home22–1916th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

+33 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pistons

+39 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KnicksPistons
1450155016501750league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYDET
Against the spread43–4446–41
Last 106–43–7
Favorite36–3319–22
Underdog7–1127–19
Overs–unders44–4344–43
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NY 7–5 DET in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.