Boston Celtics at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints42
- Jayson TatumAssists4
- Jayson TatumRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints39
- Jalen BrunsonAssists12
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–121
- Q41.1Mitchell Robinson defensive rebound113–121
- Q43.1Payton Pritchard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot113–121
- Q410.0Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2113–121
- Q410.0Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns113–120
- Q410.0Knicks offensive team rebound113–120
- Q410.0Jalen Brunson misses free throw 1 of 2113–120
- Q410.0Al Horford personal take foul113–120
- Q411.0Jalen Brunson defensive rebound113–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:22Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 96 – 96 NY · BOS 43% → 58% +15BOS 43% → 58%+15 pts
- Q47:17Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three pointer (Al Horford assists)BOS 99 – 98 NY · BOS 46% → 62% +16BOS 46% → 62%+16 pts
- Q45:52OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 102 – 105 NY · NY 44% → 61% +18NY 44% → 61%+18 pts
- Q45:22Jrue Holiday makes driving layupBOS 104 – 105 NY · BOS 38% → 50% +12BOS 38% → 50%+12 pts
- Q45:04Jalen Brunson makes 6-foot two point shotBOS 104 – 107 NY · NY 50% → 63% +13NY 50% → 63%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML BOS -240 / NY +195
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 64.0%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -208
- NY +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 107.5 – 102.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1705 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +15 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +100 Elo | BOS 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 115.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 111.79th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.1 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 116.45th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.7 | Pace | 98.426th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3033–8 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–47 | 46–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 42–44 | 36–33 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 41–49 | 46–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–3 NY in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- May 10BOS 115 @ NY 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 7NY 91 @ BOS 90PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Miss
- May 5NY 108 @ BOS 105PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Miss
- Apr 8BOS 119 @ NY 117Picked BOS 55%Hit
- Feb 23NY 105 @ BOS 118Picked BOS 73%Hit
- Feb 8BOS 131 @ NY 104Picked BOS 57%Hit
- Oct 22NY 109 @ BOS 132Picked BOS 63%Hit
- Apr 11NY 118 @ BOS 109Picked BOS 66%Miss