New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Josh HartPoints24
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds13
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints34
- Jaylen BrownAssists12
- Luke KornetRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–127
- Q423.1Miles McBride makes 26-foot three point shot102–127
- Q448.0Neemias Queta makes alley oop layup (JD Davison assists)99–127
- Q459.1Torrey Craig defensive rebound99–125
- Q41:01Landry Shamet misses free throw 2 of 299–125
- Q41:01Landry Shamet makes free throw 1 of 299–125
- Q41:01Baylor Scheierman personal foul98–125
- Q41:07JD Davison makes 28-foot three pointer (Neemias Queta assists)98–125
- Q41:21Torrey Craig offensive rebound98–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:46Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)NY 55 – 54 BOS · BOS 49% → 58% +8BOS 49% → 58%+8 pts
- Q22:02Jaylen Brown makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)NY 57 – 57 BOS · BOS 52% → 60% +8BOS 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q311:34Josh Hart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 62 – 59 BOS · NY 40% → 49% +9NY 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q310:15Josh Hart makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 65 – 65 BOS · NY 32% → 41% +9NY 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q310:07Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)NY 65 – 68 BOS · BOS 59% → 68% +9BOS 59% → 68%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML NY +165 / BOS -195
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2.5
- BOS 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.0%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -175
- NY +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 101.0 – 106.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 207.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1692 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −52 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +70 Elo | BOS 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 65.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 116.38th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 107.22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +9.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 108.95th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.4 | Pace | 97.728th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–45 | 43–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–33 | 42–45 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 47–45 | 42–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–9 BOS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.
- May 12BOS 113 @ NY 121PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Miss
- May 10BOS 115 @ NY 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 7NY 91 @ BOS 90PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Miss
- May 5NY 108 @ BOS 105PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Miss
- Apr 8BOS 119 @ NY 117Picked BOS 55%Hit
- Feb 23NY 105 @ BOS 118Picked BOS 73%Hit
- Feb 8BOS 131 @ NY 104Picked BOS 57%Hit
- Oct 22NY 109 @ BOS 132Picked BOS 63%Hit