Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Paul ReedRebounds9
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints37
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Steven AdamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–111
- Q42.4Rockets offensive team rebound115–111
- Q42.4Amen Thompson misses 28-foot three point jumper115–111
- Q45.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2115–111
- Q45.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2114–111
- Q45.5Javonte Green enters the game for Chaz Lanier113–111
- Q45.5Paul Reed enters the game for Duncan Robinson113–111
- Q45.5Alperen Sengun enters the game for Josh Okogie113–111
- Q45.5Steven Adams enters the game for Kevin Durant113–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:28Cade Cunningham makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ronald Holland II assists)DET 98 – 93 HOU · DET 51% → 66% +14DET 51% → 66%+14 pts
- Q46:37Daniss Jenkins makes 26-foot three pointer (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 101 – 99 HOU · DET 37% → 53% +17DET 37% → 53%+17 pts
- Q44:36Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three pointerDET 105 – 105 HOU · HOU 37% → 56% +20HOU 37% → 56%+20 pts
- Q42:40Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)DET 111 – 108 HOU · HOU 11% → 29% +18HOU 11% → 29%+18 pts
- Q41:55Paul Reed makes driving layup (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 113 – 110 HOU · DET 56% → 75% +19DET 56% → 75%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML DET +220 / HOU -270
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.7%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -234
- DET +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 110.0 – 116.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +46 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +105 Elo | HOU 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 109.86th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +4.57th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 29–126th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 154010th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  DET |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–42 | 47–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–23 | 32–28 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 45–43 | 48–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.