Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints39
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Steven AdamsRebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds8
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game124–125
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime124–125
- 2OT0.1Rockets offensive team rebound124–125
- 2OT0.3Jabari Smith Jr. misses 19-foot two point shot124–125
- 2OT2.3Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie124–125
- 2OT2.3Rockets Full timeout124–125
- 2OT2.3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2124–125
- 2OT2.3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2124–124
- 2OT2.3Steven Adams enters the game for Kevin Durant124–123
- 2OT2.3Kevin Durant shooting foul124–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42.6Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 15-foot pullup jump shotHOU 104 – 104 OKC · OKC <1% → 51% +51OKC <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT8.8Alperen Sengun makes 1-foot dunkHOU 115 – 115 OKC · HOU 3% → 49% +46HOU 3% → 49%+46 pts
- 2OT11.0Alperen Sengun makes 2-foot two point shot (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 124 – 123 OKC · HOU 19% → 79% +60HOU 19% → 79%+60 pts
- 2OT2.3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2HOU 124 – 124 OKC · OKC 3% → 51% +47OKC 3% → 51%+47 pts
- 2OT2.3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2HOU 124 – 125 OKC · OKC 51% → 97% +46OKC 51% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML HOU +200 / OKC -240
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1.5
- OKC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 55.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- OKC -212
- HOU +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 109.0 – 115.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +57 | −40 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +38 Elo | OKC 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  HOU |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–42 | 67–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–28 | 64–38 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 48–41 | 57–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–5 OKC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Apr 4OKC 111 @ HOU 125Picked OKC 68%Miss
- Mar 3HOU 128 @ OKC 137Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Dec 14HOU 96 @ OKC 111Picked OKC 67%Hit
- Dec 1OKC 116 @ HOU 119Picked OKC 52%Miss
- Nov 8HOU 107 @ OKC 126Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Mar 27HOU 132 @ OKC 126Picked HOU 57%Hit
- Feb 27HOU 95 @ OKC 112Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Feb 25OKC 123 @ HOU 110Picked OKC 62%Hit