Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints28
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists6
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds8
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints40
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists10
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–120
- Q423.2Bennedict Mathurin lost ball turnover (Alex Caruso steals)109–120
- Q428.1Ben Sheppard defensive rebound109–120
- Q431.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 20-foot step back jumpshot109–120
- Q452.0Chet Holmgren defensive rebound109–120
- Q454.0Johnny Furphy misses free throw 1 of 1109–120
- Q454.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting foul109–120
- Q454.0Johnny Furphy makes two point shot (Thomas Bryant assists)109–120
- Q455.1Thomas Bryant defensive rebound107–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:40Pascal Siakam makes 22-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 82 – 87 OKC · IND 12% → 20% +8IND 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q410:57Aaron Wiggins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)IND 82 – 92 OKC · OKC 86% → 92% +6OKC 86% → 92%+6 pts
- Q48:30Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 93 – 95 OKC · IND 19% → 30% +11IND 19% → 30%+11 pts
- Q48:06Jalen Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)IND 93 – 98 OKC · OKC 70% → 82% +12OKC 70% → 82%+12 pts
- Q47:09Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)IND 95 – 103 OKC · OKC 82% → 91% +9OKC 82% → 91%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML IND +275 / OKC -350
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 67.7%, market 74.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -292
- IND +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 107.5 – 116.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1662 | 1740 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +20 | IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +129 Elo | OKC 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 77.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 74.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+6 Elo- Isaiah Jackson torn right achilles tendon−4 Elo
Thunder
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–53 | 65–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 62–37 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 55–47 | 56–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–4 OKC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Jun 13OKC 111 @ IND 104PlayoffsPicked OKC 68%Hit
- Jun 11OKC 107 @ IND 116PlayoffsPicked OKC 66%Miss
- Jun 8IND 107 @ OKC 123PlayoffsPicked OKC 81%Hit
- Jun 5IND 111 @ OKC 110PlayoffsPicked OKC 80%Miss
- Mar 29IND 111 @ OKC 132Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Dec 26OKC 120 @ IND 114Picked OKC 66%Hit
- Apr 5OKC 112 @ IND 126Picked IND 67%Hit
- Mar 12IND 121 @ OKC 111Picked OKC 57%Miss